[deanhills]

@deanhills
Want to know what was going to happen without lockdown? Watch Egypt statistics
140+ daily infections and 11+ daily deaths
All we have is a quarantine everyday from 7PM to 6AM next day
Except that,  you are allowed to be in the streets the whole day

That has to be very hard for Egypt and Egyptians @youssefbasha.  Looks like the Egyptian Government called for lockdown without taking care of looking after those who are vulnerable, like people who live in the streets, and people who won't have food when they're not working. Daily wagers.  The Egyptian Government is trying to copy other countries who are more wealthy than Egypt without the necessary resources to back up something as severe as a lockdown. I'm worried given the rioting against Government a few years ago, that this could easily result in that again.  

South Africa has started its third week of lockdown plus 3 further weeks to go. During lockdown the sale of liquor and cigarettes are prohibited. People are getting restless and yesterday there were crowds looting liquor stores.  There are also incidences recorded of army brutality.  Police have been trained to deal with public, but army lacks in skills to deal with care.  The further three weeks were announced a few days ago, and not every one agrees with a full scale further lockdown.  But it has proven in the two first weeks that there has been a slow down in the increase of the Corona cases.  Like "proof".

For me stats have to do with those who have been tested positive, and as we've all learned by now there are Corona cases who could test negative, but still have the virus.  Stats are also as good as the country's way of recording the cases, the quality of tests and the timing of reporting them. I don't have much faith in the accuracy of stats. It can manipulated in any millions of ways. I doubt they are always representative. Like in Italy when during March they got to the critical stage when so many people were dying that they were only testing those who were in need of critical care. For me looks as though Italy didn't manage the virus very well, like things got out of hand, so I'd imagine their statistics will be managed in a similar chaotic out of control way.

[deanhills]

Yesterday when I was listening to an interview with a scientist from China on the Corona Virus, discovered that quite a number of scientific papers have been published.  I thought the one below is very interesting.  Particularly for a complete different way of testing with CT for the internal organs.  But for me the greatest value of this paper are the references at the end which include almost every single paper that has been published yet:
https://osf.io/preprints/metaarxiv/fu9p8/

Up to now I think most of us - through the media - have been focusing on the lungs.  The above paper focuses on the colon and pancreas as the most important area for investigation during early stages of the virus.  Reminds me of an interview I saw on an International China Channel with a Dr. Zhang in Wuhan Province.  She said two of their earliest cases didn't show any symptoms.  However they were tested as they were family of a person who had serious symptoms.  However, they then decided to test the two cases on a deeper level and a CT scan was taken when the virus showed up in serious developed stage in the colon and pancreas.  

So maybe the tests we get are really mickey mouse tests.  The tests can't pick up asymptomatic cases that could have been seen with a CT scan.  We have people moving around with the virus and passing it on, who don't show symptoms but are carriers of the virus.

The study also suggests that 14 days quarantine is not enough.  It should be a minimum of 21 days.  And once the person has recovered, they are shedding the virus even when they have been tested negative.  They should be under quarantine for at least 37 days after they have recovered from the virus.

Early identification of Covid-19 asymptomatic individuals is the biggest challenge faced globally. This study recommends a longer quarantine period of 18 – 21 days instead of 14 days. Furthermore due to further viral shedding of survived individuals, actual full recovery period should extend up to 37 days. Shedding can be further monitored by testing stools, sweat and hair follicles. Another major way of disease spread is via excretion of urine and faeces. Proper hygiene practice and sanitary issues in poor countries need attention as Covid-19 virus indicates prolong survival period in the human excretory system.

Above biochemical investigations first should focus on families with infected individuals. Individuals with underline health issues and older generation need priority of testing.

Recommendations
The following biochemical and physical investigations can be suggested to identify the early onset of the disease
1. Mean Platelet Volume (MPV)
Indicator of thrombocytic activity, has been investigated in various proinflammatory and prothrombotic clinical states. Positive correlation between MPV and liver and pancreatic enzymes.
2. Platelet Activation Factor (PAF)
Serves as a primary mediator of inflammation in the pathogenesis pancreas and PAF contributes to local tissue damage and bleeding.
3. Serum Amylase
Inflammatory process associated with tissue damage of pancreas
4. Serum Lipase
Inflammatory process associated with tissue damage of pancreas
5. Trypsin Activation Peptide (TAP)
TAP activity increases early in the course of the pancreatic changes and attains maximal value within 24–48 hours.
6. Pancreatic Bicarbonate
Pancreatic secretion for acid balancing. May indicate cellular changes in pancreas.
7. Vasodilator Intestinal Peptide (VIP)
Concentration of this peptide (VIP) of ACE2 pathway determine specially with diarrhea patients for intestinal cellular damage.
8. Serum Angiotensin Level Effector peptide of Angiotensin II for pathogenesis of pancreas
9. Abdominal Investigations
1. contrast enhanced computed tomography (CECT) 2. magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) Observation of pancreatic, spleen and gastrointestinal tissue changes specifically hemorrhage within the tissues.

[xdude]

I do have another question which fairly related. How does internet connections these days? I'm having quite bit bad time probably because everyone staying online these days since they have nothing to do. Its hard to contact support since all companies running just skeleton crews.

[tryp4vps]

I do have another question which fairly related. How does internet connections these days? I'm having quite bit bad time probably because everyone staying online these days since they have nothing to do. Its hard to contact support since all companies running just skeleton crews.

No problem for internet connections so far.

Contacting support is a real issue though. Probably because many customer support staff also need to stay at home and cannot come to their offices.

[Mashiro]

@xdude

Since the lockdown started here in Germany I have experienced a lot of issues with our Internet connection at home. Generally the DSL drops out a lot through out the day and on the weekends it gets really annoying sometimes. Other big issues is that the telephone usually stops working because it is pure VoIP these days.. so no Internet connection = no telephone and not even emergency dail to police and etc.

Another effect of that is that the DSL rate I get is often very far below the contract limit and below what the package includes. Mostly only 3 - 5 Mbit/s vs my 25 Mbit/s package (max. lower limit is 16 Mbit/s).

It is better now because a lot more stores are allowed to open. So a lot less people use the Internet so intensive as they used through the first level of lockdown.

[xdude]

@xdude

Since the lockdown started here in Germany I have experienced a lot of issues with our Internet connection at home. Generally the DSL drops out a lot through out the day and on the weekends it gets really annoying sometimes. Other big issues is that the telephone usually stops working because it is pure VoIP these days.. so no Internet connection = no telephone and not even emergency dail to police and etc.

Another effect of that is that the DSL rate I get is often very far below the contract limit and below what the package includes. Mostly only 3 - 5 Mbit/s vs my 25 Mbit/s package (max. lower limit is 16 Mbit/s).

It is better now because a lot more stores are allowed to open. So a lot less people use the Internet so intensive as they used through the first level of lockdown.

Here it's full lockdown with 24 hour curfew like in India. So most people are stuck at homes so I guess its normal everyone always online. I also have an 4G connection along with a phone. Yeah the downside is if there are power down or internet problems phone doesn't work. So you can't even call support.

Here we have to pay about 12 usd for a 100GB per month connection. The worst part is you get only about 40GB for day time and rest of the 60GB is for 12-08 a.m as off peak. Since many don't use those off peak data ISP providers profit more from unused data. Not many like me who use the whole quota by downloads all kind of stuff so I can watch later. But these days everyone at home more and more people using those off peak data. So It seems providers throttling the speed of off peak times. Once I noticed I my upload speed is 3 times faster than download speed in off peak hours!! So many believe they are throttling torrent downloads too but I have no clue how they would do it. I thought same because of my qb Torrent problem but the new client works fine so I don't think its ISPs handy work.

Another funny thing is here biggest and semi government ISP provider promoting fiberoptic connections saying it gives you amazing 150mbps speed. True, but what's the point of that when you have only about 40GB data for a month to use. ;

[deanhills]

Another funny thing is here biggest and semi government ISP provider promoting fiberoptic connections saying it gives you amazing 150mbps speed. True, but what's the point of that when you have only about 40GB data for a month to use. ;

We have the same hypocrite way of advertising the service here. Very expensive. With lockdown we're not having load shedding with electricity for now, but once the lockdown comes to an end in May, we will have load shedding once more. And then the fun and games will start. South Africa's electricity supply is in huge problems as the power stations have been neglected with no maintenance of maintenance using cheap products that weren't designed for the stations creating enormous damage. They could do some basic maintenance during the lock down but were unable to import the huge equipment needed for major maintenance that is needed. People are already beginning to groan about future hardship when the lockdown is lifted.

[sAmI]

Another funny thing is here biggest and semi government ISP provider promoting fiberoptic connections saying it gives you amazing 150mbps speed. True, but what's the point of that when you have only about 40GB data for a month to use. ;

well, thats actually weird, Is there any unlimited package available in India? Where do you live in India btw, I love to have some information about ISP's and stuff.

In pakistan, Internet connections are going weird, In the night time like 9PM till 12PM Packet losses shoot up to 50%. A famous ISP blocked it routes to SEA servers so the players can't play games like CSGO. Except for Packet Loss everything seems to be fine till now atleast for my ISP. Now most of the ISP are providing Unlimited Packages outanowhere for money maybe? and naming it as "QUARANTINE PACKAGE". 
On the other hand, This lockdown situation has created a mess here. Well yesterday went to get a haircut. Usually around 3$, Yesterday he said he would charge 10$. ..... *Speechless*

[youssefbasha]

So guys im back again after waiting much time to prove what i already said, someone was asking "i dont know what was going to happen if we didn't get a quarantine" I think that deanhills was that person.
Anyways my answer was to check Egypt daily statistics and you will know how is it going without quarantine.
We had 350+ cases yesterday and today we got 495 cases with 21 deaths, we just got about 150 new cases over the normal cases number.

[deanhills]

Thanks @youssefbasha  I don't think it was me.  But good if we can compare quarantine and cases.

We're on stage 4 of the quarantine, stage 5 being the highest. Stage 4 still has every one staying at home, schools are still closed. But fast food stores can now deliver fast food to homes. The mines have opened to a certain percentage and subject to many rules and regulations for how staff have to be protected and everything sanitized. We now have electronic shops open too, and people may buy clothes, shoes, bedding, baby stuff and kitchen things. But not more than that. Sale of tobacco and liquor is prohibited in Stage 4. The tobacco union is going to open a case against the Government about allowing tobacco to be sold again. People aren't allowed to buy new properties - they can enter into agreements, but no one can move anywhere. Including rentals. Facial masks are now a Government law every where, even outdoors. Most malls won't allow people to enter without wearing at least a cloth mask. There are some very creative masks and facial coverings. Some of the electronics companies like Vodacom has their own patented masks for their staff. No doubt they will be distributing it to clients as well.

I'm curious to know what members' experiences are with the recording of cases in their countries? How accurate are they? When we were under the 100 cases in South Africa every case was meticulously recorded and reported.  But now I have GREAT difficulty to get accurate statistics for my area in South Africa.  Part of the reason is mismanagement of recorded cases from a statistics point of view.  There is a huge wait at times between taking patients in and waiting for the test results, and a long wait for the cases to be recorded with the central Department of Health who manages the statistics. Not all of the provinces in the country are equally efficient and well managed - some are very poorly or mismanaged. Also, the stats have become politicized from region to region.  Like they're competing with who has the lowest number, so possibly there is a good chance the cases are under reported. I wonder whether this is also the case in other countries?  Like how much can we trust the stats?

Crime and corruption in South Africa is of the highest in the world.  Like out of the ordinary high.  Especially among Government officials.  So I wonder whether other members are experiencing the mismanagement and theft by Government officials of food parcels that are intended for the poor.  We even have cases of police exercising their rights to go into a liquor store, and confiscating liquor that they sold to their friends.  And police going into small spaza shops in the local communities, helping themselves and stealing from the shops.  

And now against the above background the President two days ago announced the release of 19,000 prisoners because the prisons are too full.  We already have a legal system that is stretched beyond its limits and understaffed.  It takes HUGE resources to catch robbers and put them behind bars both on the police and legal system side.  Now they will be put on parole and not even sure where they will live.  Like if you release 19,000 prisoners all at the same time, where will they go?  Crime is already increasing because there are the poor living on poverty lines who are hungry.  Food intended for them doesn't always reach them because of Government officials stealing from the food or just mismanaging the distribution of the food.  And now this added number of prisoners no doubt will also need to be supported somehow.  This baffles the mind.